The Day of Reckoning came in Virginia yesterday, what's done is done, and I am able to focus on the Huckabee campaign again.
We did our best (and a special shout-out to Kevin Tracy for handing out fliers in the cold rain yesterday morning even though he isn't registered to vote in the Commonwealth), but the Democrats took control over the Virginia Senate nonetheless.
A few lessons learned from yesterday's election, that we can use going forward into the Presidential race:
- Republican obstruction of government spending on key infrastructure is a losing position. Besides Bush fatigue, the main reason Republicans lost here is because the down-state GOP legislators have been reluctant and parsimonious in funding the transportation improvements that the urban/suburban areas desperately need. Transportation is the most important issue for half of Northern Virginia voters, and they're willing to pay for it: the transportation bond referendum passed 82-18% last night. So Club for Growth, shut up and stop slamming Huckabee for supporting a tax increase to fix the roads in Arkansas.
- A Republican tacking to the left on social issues picks up no votes - only loses some of the base. There were 3 very hot Senate races in NoVa: Davis-Petersen, O'Brien-Barker, and Cuccinelli-Olesek. Each Republican incumbent was fighting a tsunami of money from the Democratic Party of Virginia. Mrs. Davis tacked to the left on social issues, never saying anything conservative on these issues, courting the gay vote, and opposing people with concealed carry permits being able to bring the guns into schools, libraries, etc. She lost by the biggest margin: 45-55. O'Brien and Cuccinelli made no apologies for being socially conservative and the Democrats attacked them in TV ads for it. O'Brien lost just barely: 51-49, and Cuccinelli is still hanging by a thread with the absentee ballots yet to be counted. Not that this is a rosy picture, but it certainly throws cold water on the theory that somehow Giuliani can pick up electoral votes in blue states without losing them in the South. Ask your local campaign chair, Mrs. Davis, how well her liberal swing worked out for her.
- Huckabee needs to fight harder against rumors he is soft on immigration. As I went canvassing door-to-door, I got an earful a number of times about how important it was to crack down on illegal immigration, which is draining public resources, contributing to congestion, and lowering the quality of life in the area in numerous ways. The Republicans in Prince William County, who focused on this issue, did just fine last night. By contrast, Mrs. Davis sent one mailer on this issue -- in August. Bad choice. A lot of people in the district who are traditionally Democrat are exercised about how illegal immigration is ruining their neighborhoods, and she would have had a fighting chance if she showed them why she represented their views. Huckabee has got to do everything he can to toughen his image on this issue.
- Republicans who think just anyone can beat Hillary are fooling themselves. There has been a strong shift toward independents voting Democratic by default because they're fed up with the Republicans who are in power. Moreover, the electorate is really upset about the negative campaigning (I heard that time and time again while canvassing and standing outside the polls yesterday) and want positive solutions. Unless the Republican candidate is charismatic, stays positive, and focuses on new ideas on important issues instead of attacking Hillary, the disgusted middle will vote for Hillary as a matter of anti-Republican momentum or just stay home.
On a more happy note, I was able to gather 125 signatures of bona fide registered voters yesterday to help get Huckabee on the Virginia primary ballot. This is one of the toughest states: we need 10,000 good signatures of registered Virginia voters for Huckabee to be on the ballot. (All the candidates do -- the Giuliani and RP people were out getting signatures at my polling place yesterday too.) As a practical matter, that means 20,000 signatures, because many will be illegible or the person isn't registered to vote. All Virginia Huckabee supporters, please pitch in! Contact David John if you're willing to help gather signatures.
