Huckabee Campaign Post-Mortem

Last night, Mike Huckabee lost the Texas and Ohio primaries, McCain picked up the number of delegates he needed to secure the nomination, so Huckabee graciously conceded and promised to support McCain in the continuing race for the White House. It was an exciting race for several months, but now it is over.

Having spent several months on the inside of the grassroots effort for Huckabee, here is my post-mortem analysis:

It is remarkable that Huckabee got as far as he did. He had no backing from the GOP political establishment, and thus very little money, and a lot of snarky sentiment and hyperbolic criticism directed at him from the opinion leaders and political kingmakers who thought he had no right to be where he was without their anointing. Despite being first ignored and later attacked by the GOP establishment, and despite having negligible resources to get his message out, Huckabee consistently won over roughly 1/3 of GOP voters in the primaries. His ability to win hearts and minds with nothing more than good stump speeches and earned media is truly remarkable.

The downfall of the campaign was failing to reach non-Evangelical voters. As I've said many times on this blog, Huckabee's positions on domestic issues such as economics, conservation, and education are very attractive to Catholics and people of any religious stripe who believe in striving for good, balanced government (as opposed to believing government should do everything for us or government is always bad). This ought to have made Huckabee competitive with the same moderate/swing voters that McCain is hoping to win over. But most of these people never really learned about Huckabee's positions on these issues, because he was stuck in the Evangelical box. In fact, polls suggest he bombed badly with Catholics, who saw him as an Evangelical firebrand instead of a politician fighting for their values.

At least part of the reason this happened, and I hope the main reason, is that Huckabee had to rely on the Evangelical grassroots network to do so much for his campaign because he couldn't afford to have a real campaign organization. Inevitably, the foot soldiers in Huck's Army included enough religious partisans who made comments that were hostile or bizarre to non-Evangelicals to scare many others away. There were a lot of activist Huckabee supporters out there talking about Mike Huckabee as if he were anointed by God to be our political leader, and some of them going so far as talking in prophetic or apocalyptic terms. News flash, folks: we don't live in Ancient Israel. Our political leaders are elected by the free will of the people, so talk about God choosing a political leaders only brings those politicians down.

Now every candidate has some embarrassing supporters. But to be successful in the general population, they have to gently but effectively distance themselves from these people (like McCain distancing himself from Bill Cunningham's below-the-belt attacks on Obama recently, which was not a "slap at conservatives" as Cunningham complained, but smart politics). Unfortunately, Huckabee was not effective at distancing himself from those Evangelical supporters who were an embarrassment because he was too dependent on their free labor and/or had no organization to supplant them. To do better next time, he needs a stronger organization of his own so he can marginalize wacky supporters.

Huckabee also failed to focus his outreach on non-Evangelical groups. It was evident by January or maybe even December that he had the Evangelicals firmly in his camp, so he should have refocused his message on other groups at that point. Unfortunately, he made no concerted effort to reach out to Catholics or moderates. Again, I think a lot of this was driven by desperation for money and volunteers, and Evangelical audiences were low-hanging fruit for these purposes. I hope that it wasn't a lack of interest in reaching out to non-Evangelicals. If Huckabee is to have any shot at the Presidency in the future, he needs to tap the Evangelicals for funds quickly and then, knowing he has already won them over, use those funds to get his message to everyone else. Fewer Sundays before key primaries preaching to Evangelical congregations; more Mondays talking to think tanks, Fridays playing venues with Capitol Offense, and Saturdays appearing at Catholic pro-life and charitable organizations.

To have a shot at going all the way, you need a real organization. When I first got involved with the Huckabee campaign, Washington insiders told me he had no shot because he had no organization and money. I hoped he would be able to acquire those things as his popularity grew, and the same Washington insiders were truly shocked and admired how far Huckabee got without them. But when the local primaries rolled around, I realized how impossible the task was without a traditional political organization. My representative to the Virginia legislature had far more resources to run her campaign for a district of at most 100 square miles than Huckabee had to run a statewide campaign. It was complete chaos in the week before the primary as hundreds of willing volunteers with NO direction or assistance from the official campaign tried to figure out how to get yard signs, what kind of literature to hand out, where to focus their efforts, etc. Their efforts were sacrificial and valiant, and Huckabee did manage to come within single digits of McCain in Virginia. But there was a lot of frustration among the volunteers because no one knew who was in charge. And these volunteers could have done so much more if there was a real organization in place that could have planned ahead and assigned resources where they would be most effective.

Again, for Huckabee to have a real chance at winning the Presidency in a future election, he needs to gather up more resources at the start and then set up a more conventional political organization in key states. We volunteers like Mike, but having realized that an unorganized campaign is a Sisyphean effort, we're not willing to climb that mountain again without the proper gear next time.

Well, that's all folks! Here's hoping for the VP nod and 2012!

Signing off until then,
The K Street Mole for Huckabee

Potomac Primary Today!

I finally got my opportunity to cast my vote for Mike Huckabee this morning. All DC, Maryland and Virginia voters, remember to vote today!

My baby is "leaping in the womb" a lot this morning. I guess she's cheering on Mike Huckabee! Thanking him for staying in the race on behalf of unborn babies and voters who are concerned about having honorable, family-oriented leadership in this nation.

From the two of us: GO MIKE!!

Romney Drops Out - Huckabee Last Rival to McCain Standing

Well folks, just when you thought all the crazy twists and turns of the 2008 GOP primary season were coming to an end, the fat lady singing has again grabbed one candidate but promptly disappeared over the horizon. Her victim today: Mitt Romney, who bowed out with a speech at the Conservative Political Action Committee annual meeting.

It ain't over for Mike Huckabee, no matter how much the Wall Street - Beltway axis of "expert" pundits wish to ignore him. In fact, he is the last conservative left standing.

John McCain, my friends, is not a conservative. He has only been winning at best 30-some percent of the vote in the states that he has won. Two-thirds of Republican voters want someone more conservative than McCain. They only have one choice left. And despite all the exaggerations and hysterics of the NRO-talk radio crowd, Huckabee is a conservative, and certainly there is no serious argument that he isn't more conservative than McCain.

Consider:

• Embryonic stem cell research: McCain supports; Huckabee opposes.
• Gang of 14: McCain's glory in the liberal press supersedes the need to ensure that all judicial nominees get an up-or-down vote in the Senate.
• Supply side tax cuts: McCain doesn't believe that lowering taxes helps the economy and ultimately boosts government revenue (opposed the Bush tax cuts); Huckabee supports pro-growth tax-cutting policies, recognizing they make the U.S. economy more competitive internationally and help create jobs.
• Immigration: McCain wanted to grant amnesty to 10 million+ illegals; Huckabee wanted to make the best of a bad situation he couldn't control as governor, but wants the Federal government to stand up strong to its obligation to stop the flow of illegals into our states.
• Campaign finance regulation: McCain believes that the free speech of concerned citizens should be regulated and oppressed so that the mainstream media has a monopoly on shaping political debates and lobbyist-funded incumbents can't be effectively challenged. He even got away with it, with the acquiescence of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.
• By the way, count on McCain appointing another weathervane Supreme Court Justice like Sandra Day O'Connor (and like himself).

Yes, McCain is good on national defense issues, but Huckabee doesn't disagree with him on those issues. Let's talk about Huckabee making McCain VP to shore up his foreign affairs flank, not the other way around.

It's time for conservatives to flock to the polls and show this is still a real race, and they're voting for the more conservative candidate -- Mike Huckabee!

The Potomac Primary is next Tuesday: Virginia, Maryland and DC all go to the polls February 12. I especially hope that Virginia tops off Huckabee's sweep of the South (minus the Thompson spoiler). Even better, if Maryland were to go for Huckabee, it would prove that he can win outside the South in a 2-man race.

Everyone get out there on the field and win this one for Huckabee! And to the man who has planted his foot in the neck of the 1st Amendment, don't forget the Virginia motto: "Sic Semper Tyrannis" (translation: an Amazon woman stands astride a fallen king, declaring "always thus to tyrants").

Lessons from the Virginia Election

The Day of Reckoning came in Virginia yesterday, what's done is done, and I am able to focus on the Huckabee campaign again.

We did our best (and a special shout-out to Kevin Tracy for handing out fliers in the cold rain yesterday morning even though he isn't registered to vote in the Commonwealth), but the Democrats took control over the Virginia Senate nonetheless.

A few lessons learned from yesterday's election, that we can use going forward into the Presidential race:

1. Republican obstruction of government spending on key infrastructure is a losing position. Besides Bush fatigue, the main reason Republicans lost here is because the down-state GOP legislators have been reluctant and parsimonious in funding the transportation improvements that the urban/suburban areas desperately need. Transportation is the most important issue for half of Northern Virginia voters, and they're willing to pay for it: the transportation bond referendum passed 82-18% last night. So Club for Growth, shut up and stop slamming Huckabee for supporting a tax increase to fix the roads in Arkansas.
   
   
2. A Republican tacking to the left on social issues picks up no votes - only loses some of the base. There were 3 very hot Senate races in NoVa: Davis-Petersen, O'Brien-Barker, and Cuccinelli-Olesek. Each Republican incumbent was fighting a tsunami of money from the Democratic Party of Virginia. Mrs. Davis tacked to the left on social issues, never saying anything conservative on these issues, courting the gay vote, and opposing people with concealed carry permits being able to bring the guns into schools, libraries, etc. She lost by the biggest margin: 45-55. O'Brien and Cuccinelli made no apologies for being socially conservative and the Democrats attacked them in TV ads for it. O'Brien lost just barely: 51-49, and Cuccinelli is still hanging by a thread with the absentee ballots yet to be counted. Not that this is a rosy picture, but it certainly throws cold water on the theory that somehow Giuliani can pick up electoral votes in blue states without losing them in the South. Ask your local campaign chair, Mrs. Davis, how well her liberal swing worked out for her.
   
   
   
3. Huckabee needs to fight harder against rumors he is soft on immigration. As I went canvassing door-to-door, I got an earful a number of times about how important it was to crack down on illegal immigration, which is draining public resources, contributing to congestion, and lowering the quality of life in the area in numerous ways. The Republicans in Prince William County, who focused on this issue, did just fine last night. By contrast, Mrs. Davis sent one mailer on this issue -- in August. Bad choice. A lot of people in the district who are traditionally Democrat are exercised about how illegal immigration is ruining their neighborhoods, and she would have had a fighting chance if she showed them why she represented their views. Huckabee has got to do everything he can to toughen his image on this issue.
   
   
   
4. Republicans who think just anyone can beat Hillary are fooling themselves. There has been a strong shift toward independents voting Democratic by default because they're fed up with the Republicans who are in power. Moreover, the electorate is really upset about the negative campaigning (I heard that time and time again while canvassing and standing outside the polls yesterday) and want positive solutions. Unless the Republican candidate is charismatic, stays positive, and focuses on new ideas on important issues instead of attacking Hillary, the disgusted middle will vote for Hillary as a matter of anti-Republican momentum or just stay home.

On a more happy note, I was able to gather 125 signatures of bona fide registered voters yesterday to help get Huckabee on the Virginia primary ballot. This is one of the toughest states: we need 10,000 good signatures of registered Virginia voters for Huckabee to be on the ballot. (All the candidates do -- the Giuliani and RP people were out getting signatures at my polling place yesterday too.) As a practical matter, that means 20,000 signatures, because many will be illegible or the person isn't registered to vote. All Virginia Huckabee supporters, please pitch in! Contact David John if you're willing to help gather signatures.

Short Blogging Break

Dear Fellow Huckabeelievers,

I regret to say that I need to take a break from Huckabee blogging through November 6. I am very busy at work and must devote all my "extracurricular" time over the next 2 weeks to helping Republicans keep control of the Virginia Senate and avert a redistricting nightmare in 2010.

After election night, I plan to be back in the Huckosphere in full force. In the meantime, if you, dear reader, live in the DC Metro area, particularly Fairfax County, and want to help me turn out the beleaguered Republican voters in Fairfax, please email me and I am sure I can point you to a volunteer opportunity that fits your time availability.

Shame on Club for Growth

They spent September 11, a sacred and solemn day in this nation, putting up a hatchet job website devoted to slamming Mike Huckabee.

Maybe this is my own private conspiracy theory, but I am convinced that the number one thing holding Huckabee back right now is opposition from Club for Growth. Many of the big Republican donors are under their sway, and I think they've intimidated (or at least influenced) the conservative pundits into ignoring Huckabee.

I remember thinking Club for Growth was a good development when I first read about them in National Review several years ago. But increasingly they are becoming like Judicial Watch. Remember them? Back when Clinton was President and Al Gore was trying to cheat his way to the Presidency, Republicans loved this watchdog group. But founder Larry Klayman didn't know when to stop, didn't know how to choose his enemies or battles wisely, and it didn't take long for Judicial Watch supporters to walk away. Klayman left in 2003, and who has heard of them recently?

Likewise, Club for Growth has gone from opposing Democrats and RINOS to attacking anyone who votes for any tax for any reason. They are inflicting serious damage on Republicans by doing this. In Virginia, for instance, they are outspoken critics of the transportation compromise achieved in Richmond this year that will finally set aside billions of desperately-needed transportation dollars for Northern Virginia. Hey Club for Growth, did you realize that the suburban areas of Northern Virginia are a key swing vote for statewide elections, and that fully half of NoVa voters say improving transportation is the most important issue for them in state and local elections? Instead of praising the sensible Republicans who finally got a compromise through that will provide real relief for terrible traffic congestion without raising income or sales taxes, Club for Growth writes misleading talking points that go straight into the arsenal of Democrats, attacking the "abusive driver fees" that are mostly controversial because of a change made by our Democratic governor.

Oh, you poor (rich) boy, you can't drive your sports car 85 miles an hour or run a red light and get off with a $200 ticket - now it's a whopping $1,000 (over 3 years). These Club for Growth guys are perfectly illustrated in this new Onion video.

Look, I hate high taxes and taxes that discourage hard work, savings, and innovation as much as you do. But government does have the responsibility to provide transportation infrastructure, and has to pay for it somehow. Not all transportation spending is pork. When public transportation is so packed that people can't get on and all the major arteries in the area are parking lots during rush hour (and even on weekends often!) then government really does need to do something about it.

In NoVa it's transportation, and apparently that was a big issue in Arkansas when Huckabee was Governor, but the need to balance tax policy with other government priorities is a nationwide issue. A new Roll Call article notes that independent voters are most interested in positive government action on issues like health care, and Tax Tourette's Syndrome won't get a Republican elected to the White House.

Oh yes, and politics is about the art of compromise. If you want to get something done, you have to accept certain things you don't personally support because it is part of an all-or-nothing package. Counting small tax or fee hikes as black marks against politicians who vote for or sign a bill because the package is a good thing on balance is the basest form of demagoguery.

It's time for conservatives to toss Club for Growth on the "has been" heap with Judicial Watch.

P.S. Here's a great rebuttal to the Club for Growth slanders against Huckabee.