Huckabee Campaign Post-Mortem

Last night, Mike Huckabee lost the Texas and Ohio primaries, McCain picked up the number of delegates he needed to secure the nomination, so Huckabee graciously conceded and promised to support McCain in the continuing race for the White House. It was an exciting race for several months, but now it is over.

Having spent several months on the inside of the grassroots effort for Huckabee, here is my post-mortem analysis:

It is remarkable that Huckabee got as far as he did. He had no backing from the GOP political establishment, and thus very little money, and a lot of snarky sentiment and hyperbolic criticism directed at him from the opinion leaders and political kingmakers who thought he had no right to be where he was without their anointing. Despite being first ignored and later attacked by the GOP establishment, and despite having negligible resources to get his message out, Huckabee consistently won over roughly 1/3 of GOP voters in the primaries. His ability to win hearts and minds with nothing more than good stump speeches and earned media is truly remarkable.

The downfall of the campaign was failing to reach non-Evangelical voters. As I've said many times on this blog, Huckabee's positions on domestic issues such as economics, conservation, and education are very attractive to Catholics and people of any religious stripe who believe in striving for good, balanced government (as opposed to believing government should do everything for us or government is always bad). This ought to have made Huckabee competitive with the same moderate/swing voters that McCain is hoping to win over. But most of these people never really learned about Huckabee's positions on these issues, because he was stuck in the Evangelical box. In fact, polls suggest he bombed badly with Catholics, who saw him as an Evangelical firebrand instead of a politician fighting for their values.

At least part of the reason this happened, and I hope the main reason, is that Huckabee had to rely on the Evangelical grassroots network to do so much for his campaign because he couldn't afford to have a real campaign organization. Inevitably, the foot soldiers in Huck's Army included enough religious partisans who made comments that were hostile or bizarre to non-Evangelicals to scare many others away. There were a lot of activist Huckabee supporters out there talking about Mike Huckabee as if he were anointed by God to be our political leader, and some of them going so far as talking in prophetic or apocalyptic terms. News flash, folks: we don't live in Ancient Israel. Our political leaders are elected by the free will of the people, so talk about God choosing a political leaders only brings those politicians down.

Now every candidate has some embarrassing supporters. But to be successful in the general population, they have to gently but effectively distance themselves from these people (like McCain distancing himself from Bill Cunningham's below-the-belt attacks on Obama recently, which was not a "slap at conservatives" as Cunningham complained, but smart politics). Unfortunately, Huckabee was not effective at distancing himself from those Evangelical supporters who were an embarrassment because he was too dependent on their free labor and/or had no organization to supplant them. To do better next time, he needs a stronger organization of his own so he can marginalize wacky supporters.

Huckabee also failed to focus his outreach on non-Evangelical groups. It was evident by January or maybe even December that he had the Evangelicals firmly in his camp, so he should have refocused his message on other groups at that point. Unfortunately, he made no concerted effort to reach out to Catholics or moderates. Again, I think a lot of this was driven by desperation for money and volunteers, and Evangelical audiences were low-hanging fruit for these purposes. I hope that it wasn't a lack of interest in reaching out to non-Evangelicals. If Huckabee is to have any shot at the Presidency in the future, he needs to tap the Evangelicals for funds quickly and then, knowing he has already won them over, use those funds to get his message to everyone else. Fewer Sundays before key primaries preaching to Evangelical congregations; more Mondays talking to think tanks, Fridays playing venues with Capitol Offense, and Saturdays appearing at Catholic pro-life and charitable organizations.

To have a shot at going all the way, you need a real organization. When I first got involved with the Huckabee campaign, Washington insiders told me he had no shot because he had no organization and money. I hoped he would be able to acquire those things as his popularity grew, and the same Washington insiders were truly shocked and admired how far Huckabee got without them. But when the local primaries rolled around, I realized how impossible the task was without a traditional political organization. My representative to the Virginia legislature had far more resources to run her campaign for a district of at most 100 square miles than Huckabee had to run a statewide campaign. It was complete chaos in the week before the primary as hundreds of willing volunteers with NO direction or assistance from the official campaign tried to figure out how to get yard signs, what kind of literature to hand out, where to focus their efforts, etc. Their efforts were sacrificial and valiant, and Huckabee did manage to come within single digits of McCain in Virginia. But there was a lot of frustration among the volunteers because no one knew who was in charge. And these volunteers could have done so much more if there was a real organization in place that could have planned ahead and assigned resources where they would be most effective.

Again, for Huckabee to have a real chance at winning the Presidency in a future election, he needs to gather up more resources at the start and then set up a more conventional political organization in key states. We volunteers like Mike, but having realized that an unorganized campaign is a Sisyphean effort, we're not willing to climb that mountain again without the proper gear next time.

Well, that's all folks! Here's hoping for the VP nod and 2012!

Signing off until then,
The K Street Mole for Huckabee

Nothing's the Matter with Kansas

In the first caucus since Romney's departure left the GOP nomination a two-man race, Huckabee beats McCain by a whopping 61 to 22%! (With 3/4 of precincts reporting - exact final tally may change.)

One of the central claims of the book "What's the Matter with Kansas" is that economic conservatives have taken advantage of social conservatives, taking their votes and activism for granted while not actually delivering on the social issues and promoting economic policies that undermine the very family values the social conservatives care about.

Whatever else you might think of this book, today's Kansas caucus proves that social conservatives are not dupes, and they are working hard to wrest control of the GOP away from the country club Republicans who think they can just use and abuse the real foot soldiers of the party.

Mike Huckabee is a great Presidential candidate to represent American families because, unlike John McCain, he combines:

• Rock solid commitment to defending the sanctity of life and marriage;
• Understanding that both tax cuts and infrastructure investments stimulate the economy and the well-being of all Americans -- wise governance is balancing the two;
• Conviction that free markets are generally good, but don't come before families; and
• Commitment to do everything possible to stop the loss of American jobs and national security to illegal immigrants and foreign nations.

McCain has many heterodoxies from the economic conservatives too, but ultimately he is still a country club Republican:

• Supports giving amnesty to illegals, so the rich can continue to support their lavish lifestyles with very cheap labor;
• Has no commitment to supporting pro-life or pro-marriage issues;
• Dumped his first wife after an accident left her less attractive, to marry into wealth;
• Shut down many sources of funding for political activity, making grassroots challenges to the Washington status quo more difficult, and ceding more power to the wealthy lobbyists who expect to buy "access" with $2,300 checks.

Let the country club pundits convince us the race is over? No way! Kansas has spoken, and the heartland Republicans have declared loud and clear: WE are the GOP.

Romney Drops Out - Huckabee Last Rival to McCain Standing

Well folks, just when you thought all the crazy twists and turns of the 2008 GOP primary season were coming to an end, the fat lady singing has again grabbed one candidate but promptly disappeared over the horizon. Her victim today: Mitt Romney, who bowed out with a speech at the Conservative Political Action Committee annual meeting.

It ain't over for Mike Huckabee, no matter how much the Wall Street - Beltway axis of "expert" pundits wish to ignore him. In fact, he is the last conservative left standing.

John McCain, my friends, is not a conservative. He has only been winning at best 30-some percent of the vote in the states that he has won. Two-thirds of Republican voters want someone more conservative than McCain. They only have one choice left. And despite all the exaggerations and hysterics of the NRO-talk radio crowd, Huckabee is a conservative, and certainly there is no serious argument that he isn't more conservative than McCain.

Consider:

• Embryonic stem cell research: McCain supports; Huckabee opposes.
• Gang of 14: McCain's glory in the liberal press supersedes the need to ensure that all judicial nominees get an up-or-down vote in the Senate.
• Supply side tax cuts: McCain doesn't believe that lowering taxes helps the economy and ultimately boosts government revenue (opposed the Bush tax cuts); Huckabee supports pro-growth tax-cutting policies, recognizing they make the U.S. economy more competitive internationally and help create jobs.
• Immigration: McCain wanted to grant amnesty to 10 million+ illegals; Huckabee wanted to make the best of a bad situation he couldn't control as governor, but wants the Federal government to stand up strong to its obligation to stop the flow of illegals into our states.
• Campaign finance regulation: McCain believes that the free speech of concerned citizens should be regulated and oppressed so that the mainstream media has a monopoly on shaping political debates and lobbyist-funded incumbents can't be effectively challenged. He even got away with it, with the acquiescence of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.
• By the way, count on McCain appointing another weathervane Supreme Court Justice like Sandra Day O'Connor (and like himself).

Yes, McCain is good on national defense issues, but Huckabee doesn't disagree with him on those issues. Let's talk about Huckabee making McCain VP to shore up his foreign affairs flank, not the other way around.

It's time for conservatives to flock to the polls and show this is still a real race, and they're voting for the more conservative candidate -- Mike Huckabee!

The Potomac Primary is next Tuesday: Virginia, Maryland and DC all go to the polls February 12. I especially hope that Virginia tops off Huckabee's sweep of the South (minus the Thompson spoiler). Even better, if Maryland were to go for Huckabee, it would prove that he can win outside the South in a 2-man race.

Everyone get out there on the field and win this one for Huckabee! And to the man who has planted his foot in the neck of the 1st Amendment, don't forget the Virginia motto: "Sic Semper Tyrannis" (translation: an Amazon woman stands astride a fallen king, declaring "always thus to tyrants").

Breaking News: Thompson Quits Race

No one is surprised, I think, but Fred Thompson just officially announced his withdrawal from the race for the Republican nomination.

I believe this will help boost Huckabee's campaign. If it weren't for Thompson, Huckabee probably would have won South Carolina. They were competing for the same conservative voters and people who saw a need for a down-to-earth Southerner as the GOP nominee.

I do not feel compelled to say anything positive about Thompson, particularly after his bitter and libelous attacks on Huckabee in the past several weeks. Good bye and good riddance!

FRC Finally Acting Helpful

First, the disclaimer: Under federal tax laws, the Family Research Council is forbidden from endorsing any candidate for political office or otherwise "intervening" in an election. But the reality is that nonprofits have become very sophisticated in influencing their particular audiences in political matters without stepping over the tax code's lines. The leftys even have an organization, Alliance for Justice, devoted to giving workshops and offering individualized legal advice to nonprofits to help them "get away" with as much political activity as possible while not jeopardizing their tax status. (I infiltrated their 2-day workshop a while back: extremely informative -- and maddening.)

So the Family Research Council / FRC Action really botched an opportunity back in October to help unite social conservatives behind one GOP candidate. After Mike Huckabee received more standing ovations than all of the other GOP candidates combined (and they all got ~20 minutes to speak to about 2,000 FRC members) at their Washington Briefing conference, FRC announced Mitt Romney the winner of their straw poll (by a hair over Huckabee), to stunned silence by the people who had actually attended the event. Quickly the true story leaked out: the Romney supporters had "stuffed" the online voting (which required "joining" FRC Action for $1), but Mike Huckabee had totally dominated the onsite voting, winning 51% of the vote, and Romney came in a very distant 2nd place with 10% of the onsite vote. Had FRC been forthcoming from the beginning about the results of much more reliable onsite voting, instead of issuing misleading press releases calling Romney the winner, this would have boosted Huckabee's status as the leader for social conservatives much more than the muddled reporting that actually occurred.

Well, FRC is now facing the prospect of the social conservatives getting left in the cold because of the 3-way split among the first three primaries. Now Tony Perkins' message on their blog is, we have to unite! He can't say which candidate to unite behind overtly, and he offers some complimentary points about each of Huckabee, McCain, Romney and Thompson, but today's blog entry does offer some subtle clues to readers about where the center of gravity ought to be:

• It criticizes Dick Armey and the Club for Growth for touring South Carolina, not to unite the party, but to attack Mike Huckabee. Also note that FRC has cast Dick Armey as the villian in multiple recent daily emails for trying to jettison the social conservatives and shove Rudy Giuliani down their throats. The implication is that Club for Growth is guilty by association and Mike Huckabee is the protagonist to slay the Armey dragon.
  
• Huckabee gets listed first among the candidates. Simple yet suggestive.
  
• The Blogroll on the right of the screen highlights 3 blogs, and then lists maybe a hundred more alphabetically. The top two featured blogs happen to be... prominent pro-Huckabee blogs! Evangelical Outpost, which has explicitly endorsed Huckabee, and Reasoned Audacity, belonging to Charmaine Yoest, who recently joined the Huckabee campaign as Senior Policy Adviser.

In other news, today's Rassmussen poll shows Huckabee overcoming last week's slippage in South Carolina and gaining 9 percentage points in one week to pull dead even with John McCain. I was getting a little worried and pessimistic the last few days about a McCain takeover, but things are looking promising as we head into the first in the South primary!

Huckabee's Economic Stimulus Plan

First, a note on Michigan. I'm sad that Huckabee didn't win, as the polls indicated he might a few weeks ago, but I'm glad that Romney broke McCain's "momentum." This should deflate the McCain bubble and give Huckabee a better chance at winning South Carolina on Saturday. It's do-or-die time!

Romney seems to have won Michigan because of his conversion in the past week to the idea that the economy is hurting and maybe the government can do something helpful. In Romney's case, that "something helpful" is promising to shovel billions of dollars to Michigan in corporate welfare while mandating health insurance coverage for every American, thereby saddling the whole nation with similar health care costs as the auto industry. I guess Romney has decided that buying elections with his own money wasn't working too well, and buying an election with the taxpayers' money is cheaper for him and apparently more effective too.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee, who has been characterized by certain quarters as an "economic liberal" for having acknowledged the looming economic problems months ago, has put out an economic stimulus plan that addresses the struggles of the entire nation. Called the "Fair Deal," Huckabee's plan is both forward thinking and remarkably, well, conservative in its economic tone.

First off, Huckabee explains that "I know that Main Street, as well as Wall Street, is threatened by a weakening economy. But we are all in this together." Doesn't sound like John Edwards to me...

Principle 1: Strengthen the economic health of middle class families. Eliminate the marriage penalty. Cut taxes on savings. Make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Stem the tide of housing foreclosures. Cut bureaucratic red tape that hampers small businesses. Open new foreign markets for exporting U.S. products and services. (Weird! I don't see anything about capping executive pay or raising taxes on the rich.)

Principle 2: Work with the Federal Reserve to take a balanced approach to stave off recession while not encouraging inflation. (This is the key short-term element of the plan.)

Principle 3: Create jobs by building up the strength of our military, borders, and critical infrastructure. We desperately need to do these things anyway for the safety of our nation. It so happens that getting them done creates new jobs too.

Principle 4: Invest in energy independence. Not just for cars to buy Michigan's votes, but for all forms of energy, to get us off dependence on foreign oil entirely.

Principle 5: Make the tax system more competitive. Of course Huckabee advocates the Fair Tax, but recognizes it will take a long time to get there. In the meantime, reduce counterproductively high personal and corporate income tax rates and eliminate the death tax. (Super weird--he even wants to reduce taxes on the rich!)

The great thing about this plan is that it is balanced and addresses the long-range problems that are causing economic security and the move toward a recession. Some on Capitol Hill are proposing band-aid stimulus ideas, like retroactive tax cuts for 2007 to put rebate checks in people's hands this spring. A rebate check is nice and all (just got one from Sears tonight) but it doesn't address the core insecurity. For families that are really struggling it pays their fuel bills for a couple of months, and then what? For people who aren't as strapped, maybe they'll go out and buy golf clubs like someone I know did with his 2002 tax rebate check, but a tiny, temporary spike in consumer spending isn't going to cause employers to hire more people or give raises or stem the tide of home foreclosures.

Huckabee's plan is designed to address, over the long haul, the core problems of stagnating wages, rising energy costs, and an anti-family tax system. Bravo, Governor! If only our country could get past partisan hatred and pigeonholing to actually enact such sensible solutions!

Conservatism's Inquisitors on Brink of Causing Their Own Demise

Polls over the last few days show that Republican primary voters are starting to believe the hype of the pundit classes that Huckabee is a one-state wonder and McCain is the man with momentum. Mike Huckabee was recently running in first place in Michigan and South Carolina, but he is rapidly losing ground to John McCain, and to a much lesser but still significant extent, Fred Thompson.

Much of this is the result of relentless attacks by pundits such as Rush Limbaugh and National Review against Mike Huckabee for being supposedly heterodox as a conservative. Most of what they claim against him is based on exaggerations, mischaracterizations and associative fear mongering. The exaggerations and mischaracterizations (e.g. feigned outrage at a 47% increase in taxes in Arkansas during Huckabee's term, never mind that income rose more than 50% in Arkansas and this 10+ year change only amounts to 3.7% annually; legitimate concern about certain voucher proposals = anti-school choice) are the sheen of legitimacy painted on an irrational fear of Huckabee based on associative thinking. Jonah Goldberg's recent NR article, The Horror of Huck, finally, honestly, reveals the true reasons that Huckabee's record is held to an impossible double standard in comparison to the other GOP candidates: "It's a Compassionate Conservative!" which Goldberg equates with several horror movie villains.

In the minds of Conservatism's Inquisition, Huckabee talks a lot about the struggles of the average Joe, John Edwards talks a lot about the struggles of the average Joe, therefore Huckabee's policy positions must be similar to John Edwards. Huckabee is compassionate in his outlook and embraces conservative social views, George W. Bush calls himself a "compassionate conservative" and supports expanding Medicare entitlements and quixotic federal meddling in education, therefore Huckabee must support expanding Medicare entitlements and more federal money and meddling in education. Never mind that a 10-minute perusal of Huckabee's website would reveal that Huckabee's policy prescriptions do not mimic either Edwards or Bush and actually show a great deal of fealty to the Reaganite principles of peace through strength, the power of innovation, and personal responsibility.

Unfortunately, a lot of voters don't take the time to read through Huckabee's website and they take the characterizations of Rush Limbaugh and his ilk on faith. Even if they don't listen to talk radio or read NR, they are likely to see one of Mitt Romney's attack ads or Fred Thompson's attack performance at the Fox News debate on January 10 and instantly believe the accusations that Huckabee is too "liberal" for Republican primary voters.

But who is more orthodox as a conservative? Only Fred Thompson, who is a dead man walking in this election by now. Despite a South Carolina bump from his uncharacteristic passionate (but entirely negative) performance last week, there is no realistic chance Fred could win the nomination, and even less the general election.

Mitt Romney is also orthodox, if you look at his paint-by-numbers conservative policy statements circa 2007 and ignore what he did or said from 1992 through 2006. But he isn't electable either, not because of his religion but because of his persona. When the nation seems poised at the brink of recession, and in any case a lot of families are struggling economically, people are not drawn to a guy born with a silver spoon in his mouth, a TV-perfect physique and an equally TV-perfect family, with a sense of entitlement that because of his "hard work" (ignore his fortunate accidents of circumstance) he can do anything he wants, including buy the Presidency, and anyone else who isn't succeeding just isn't working hard enough. Even though someone finally got through to him recently with the message "it's the economy, stupid," Romney's rosy declarations that Michigan can get back the same jobs it lost cannot reestablish his credibility with voters having incomes under $100,000.

Which leaves the pragmatic voter who identifies himself or herself as "conservative" with... John McCain. Oops! That's not what the self-proclaimed arbiters of conservatism want! But in expending so much fire power on Mike Huckabee, they have let the public forget McCain's decades of serious heterodoxy from conservative principles:

• Rape of the First Amendment - seriously limiting the ability of citizens to effectively communicate political views to the public through the McCain-Feingold Act, violating the first and most fundamental principle in the Bill of Rights.
  
• Opposition to Bush tax cuts - McCain does not believe the core Reaganite economic doctrine that tax cuts can actually improve government revenue if they are designed to stimulate economic growth. Huckabee agreed to certain tax increases when they were absolutely necessary to pay for critical government functions, but he also believes in pursuing tax cuts and changes that stimulate economic growth and improve American competitiveness.
  
• Opposition to addressing conservative social issues - In the Senate, McCain has fought tooth and nail to prevent votes on conservative social issues, and he also undermined the effort to use the "constitutional option" to stop the Democrats from imposing liberal litmus tests on judicial appointments. Former Senator Rick Santorum has been very outspoken about these points in recent days.

This is only a partial list of John McCain's serious defections from conservative principles. But to the conservative pundits, I ask this question: Would you rather lose your "right to smoke" in public indoor spaces, or your right to free political expression? Would you rather pay a small increase in the gas tax to stimulate innovation toward energy independence or see a return to Clinton tax rates and the death tax? Assuming you can't abide by McCain, you better turn your fire off of Mike Huckabee and onto John McCain immediately. Forget your unelectable puppets and form an alliance with Mike Huckabee before it's too late.

Remember, conservative pundits, that "John McCain looks at things through the eyes of the New York Times editorial board." If you keep encouraging a bitter 3-way split among the core conservatives, you won't get a nominee who listens to you at all. You will become entirely irrelevant, ruined by your own overzealous prosecution of Mike Huckabee.

Identity Politics Do NOT Explain the Huckaboom

Many of the conservative establishment pundits are continuing to insist on this talking point. NRO says again today that Huckabee "ran on his religion" to win in Iowa, but he needs to broaden his appeal beyond Evangelicals to win the nomination. That's rich coming from the publication that has gone all-out to convince other types of conservatives that Huckabee is a wolf in sheep's clothing and somehow his occasional support for a small tax increase to cover the state budget is soooo much worse than McCain opposing the Bush tax cuts or Romney raising fees in Taxachussets.

As someone who left the Evangelical camp for Rome Sweet Home a decade ago, I certainly don't support Huckabee because he's an Evangelical. Yes, some people are motivated to support him for this reason. Frankly, I find some downright loony comments out there on the wild west web where people associate their support for Huckabee with visions from God or apocalyptic predictions. But there aren't nearly enough people in this nation who think that way to account for the Huckaboom we're seeing in serious polls.

A few pundits are willing to acknowledge this and look at the Huckaboom phenomenon seriously. I want to commend Michael Medved and David Brooks for being two of today's best commentators on Huckabee's Iowa caucus victory.

Medved says "Stop Lying About Huckabee and Evangelicals!", crunches the numbers, and points out this statistical gem:

Yes, Huckabee’s 46% of Evangelicals was a strong showing, but it was directly comparable to his commanding 40% of women, or 40% of all voters under the age of 30, or 41% of those earning less than $30,000 a year. His powerful appeal to females, the young and the poor make him a different kind of Republican, who connects with voting blocs the GOP needs to win back. He’s hardly the one-dimensional religious candidate of media caricature.

Brooks offers this insightful commentary:

Some people are going to tell you that Mike Huckabee’s victory last night in Iowa represents a triumph for the creationist crusaders. Wrong.

Huckabee won because he tapped into realities that other Republicans have been slow to recognize. First, evangelicals have changed. Huckabee is the first ironic evangelical on the national stage. He’s funny, campy (see his Chuck Norris fixation) and he’s not at war with modern culture.

Second, Huckabee understands much better than Mitt Romney that we have a crisis of authority in this country. People have lost faith in their leaders’ ability to respond to problems. While Romney embodies the leadership class, Huckabee went after it. He criticized Wall Street and K Street. Most importantly, he sensed that conservatives do not believe their own movement is well led. He took on Rush Limbaugh, the Club for Growth and even President Bush. The old guard threw everything they had at him, and their diminished power is now exposed.

Third, Huckabee understands how middle-class anxiety is really lived. Democrats talk about wages. But real middle-class families have more to fear economically from divorce than from a free trade pact. A person’s lifetime prospects will be threatened more by single parenting than by outsourcing. Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has.

In that sense, Huckabee’s victory is not a step into the past. It opens up the way for a new coalition.

A conservatism that recognizes stable families as the foundation of economic growth is not hard to imagine. A conservatism that loves capitalism but distrusts capitalists is not hard to imagine either. Adam Smith felt this way. A conservatism that pays attention to people making less than $50,000 a year is the only conservatism worth defending.

Exactly! Brooks still is skeptical that Huckabee has what it takes to win the nomination, but he concludes "starting last night in Iowa, an evangelical began the Republican Reformation."

Yes, this is a reformation of the GOP, but it may be more Vatican II (elevating the importance of the "lay" grassroots and tweaking outdated customs) than Martin Luther (wholesale rejection of certain "doctrines"). After all, Huckabee did choose to quote G.K. Chesterton at his victory speech, not Tim LaHaye or even Abraham Kuyper.

I'm not suggesting that Huckabee is a closet Catholic or anything other than an Evangelical. My point is that what makes him a great candidate is that he reaches beyond the Evangelical box, to understand and represent the concerns of people of goodwill beyond denominational labels.

WOOO HOOO!!!

Congratulations Governor Huckabee on a definitive win in Iowa!

Though I can't say I'm surprised. I know Iowa. I went to college there. I have a slew of relatives there. And I knew the good people of Iowa would not be bought. They stand for the middle class, for family values, and for a leader of strong but humble character.

I loved Huckabee's quotation of G.K. Chesterton in his victory speech tonight: "a great soldier fights not because he hates the people in front of him, but because he loves the people behind him." A great contrast with Hillary's aspiration to win over Democrats, Independents, and "Republicans who have seen the light." The American people are sick of the partisanship, and ready for someone who will bring them together. Huckabee is the only candidate of either party who is credible in promoting "vertical politics" instead of partisanship. Even my die-hard liberal grandmother admires him for that.

Now the big test: can Huckabee pull off a second win among the pre-super-Tuesday states? This is absolutely necessary to prove he isn't just a one-state wonder who is completely dependent on a high concentration of Evangelical voters. My money, if I were a betting person, would be on pulling this off in South Carolina, but Michigan is another good possibility (and makes the latter point better) because he can tap into their economic angst unlike any other Republican candidate. We shall see! (And no, I don't have any real money on it, unless you count my campaign contributions. ;-)

But tonight, kudos to all Huckabelievers! As the pundits are acknowledging, and our man Mike, we showed the nation that politics as usual is not inevitable, and the true grassroots are more alive and powerful than ever.

Washington Briefing a Resounding Success!

I just got home an hour ago from the Washington Briefing. This event was a resounding success! Thanks so much to everyone who came, everyone who voted online, and everyone who prayed for Mike Huckabee.

You may have already seen the results of the straw poll - Romney narrowly edged out Huckabee by 0.5% of overall vote - after sending emails to supporters nationwide yesterday telling them to vote online. But Huckabee beat Romney by a 5 to 1 margin among onsite voters, and won 51% of the vote with 9 Republicans on the ballot (and the Democrats too, but this isn't really "their crowd," shall we say).

You also may have read the summary of Huckabee's speech posted by Erick at Redstate and reposted on the Huckabee website. I think this is quite accurate, but want to add a couple points:

• The crowd who went nuts at the beginning and wouldn't stop cheering weren't Arkansas folks. They were Huckabee supporters from all over the country. In fact, I didn't meet a single Huckabee supporter from Arkansas there! (Not that there weren't any, but no one I talked with and asked where they were from said Arkansas.)
• Huckabee got more standing ovations than all of the other Presidential candidates combined! Most of the others got one or two, at best. Huckabee's speech was interrupted by standing ovations so many times that the supporter next to me quipped we were practicing for Huckabee's first State of the Union address.
• Mike's mention of Jesus raising Lazarus was near the end of a litany of Biblical examples of the underdog winning or the impossible happening by the power of God. He started saying that his upbringing taught him that he'd rather be David than Goliath, a good reference to his position right now in terms of fundraising versus real strength as a candidate.

The energy on the ground there was amazing. Yesterday the Huckabee supporters who had coordinated online were handing out pins to people who saw ours and asked for them, and quickly ran out of the 50 or so we had. We were the only ones with a real grassroots there. Thompson brought an entourage that handed out stuff for an hour or two before he spoke, and quickly disappeared afterwards. Romney brought a much bigger entourage yesterday evening, but again, there were only a handful of Romney supporters there the rest of the time. We were all over the floor and growing every hour. Janet Folger was pigeonholing all the big-wigs and handing out color graphs of Huckabee's 63% win at the Value Voters debate in Florida a month ago. Three Huckabee supporters sharing a hotel room stayed up into the wee hours Friday night to put together an excellent flier in support of Huckabee that they handed out to conference-goers as they entered early Saturday morning. Huckabee inspires so much energy from his supporters, I think that alone might be the answer to energy independence. :)

After the speech, Huckabee met for little while with bloggers and other supporters and did a Q&A session, before moving on to the official media meeting. One question was about the difficulty he has had in getting leaders of his own faith to support him. Mike said that the problem was that these leaders seemed to think their job is to handicap the horserace. He said "you should be backing the horse you have, and feeding it." Several people wrote checks on the spot.

This was a great, great day for the Huckabee campaign. Thanks again for everyone who contributed their time, prayers, and votes!

A final important point: after this weekend, Fred Thompson is toast. He is in the race only to be an "electable other" for social conservatives instead of Romney. The social conservatives have spoken: Thompson is a dud. He received only 8% of the onsite vote; and only 10% overall--i.e. including people who didn't see him speak and compare with the other candidates. Many people who had walked into the event leaning or even supporting Thompson left supporting Huckabee. If Thompson bores the conservative base and his share of their votes sits in the cellar, he has no purpose in this campaign.

It's really clear now: there are only two possibilities for the social conservatives to coalesce around to make sure that Rudy Giuliani does not hijack the GOP with a minority faction. Romney or Huckabee. Will the opinion leaders of the conservatives focus on Romney's narrow win of a straw poll with virtually no checks against bias, his big warchest, and his saying all the right things to the value voters, even if the crowd is skeptical and feels pandered to? Or will they focus on Huckabee's gathering momentum, the fact he has won a clear majority in a straw poll of values voters where all the GOP candidates had 15-20 minutes to air their positions, and the fact he energizes the crowd and grassroots far more than any other candidate?

Pray, pray hard that it is the latter. We're with David!

October 19 - Why Your Country Needs YOU in Washington

Reported today in the Washington Times:

Fifth-ranked in the polls, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has backing of the leaders of many small-to-medium sized evangelical congregations and interest groups but not the most widely influential leaders like [American Family Association (AFA) Chairman Donald Wildmon] and Dr. Dobson.

"It would seem that Christian leaders could well rally around Mike Huckabee if they are in search of a candidate they like," said Republican election-law attorney Cleta Mitchell. "It isn't as though there isn't any candidate they could support." Mrs. Mitchell supports no candidate but thinks Mr. Huckabee "is actually a pretty impressive candidate and is doing a credible job of making his presence felt in this race."

Mr. Wildmon agreed. "Could the social-conservative leaders support Huckabee? Yes. Have they done so yet? No," he said, adding that he is "part of a group who have pledged not to go public to endorse anybody until the end of October." If current alignments haven't changed by then, however, public declarations of fealty will reveal a badly splintered Christian right.

My friends, why do you think they're holding out until the end of October? I'd venture to say because the biggest national conclave of Christian conservatives is slated for October 19-20 in Washington, DC, and they want to test the waters there first.

If you read the rest of the Washington Times article, it discusses how Fred Thompson has failed to become the rallying point for Christian conservatives, and Evangelicals are afraid of Romney's Mormon faith, leaving them deeply divided or undecided between the two not-so-attractive candidates.

Our country needs us to do everything we can to get the Christian conservative bloc to rally around Mike Huckabee. If you're pro-life then anything else will be a disaster. Neither Thompson nor Romney can rally the base well enough to beat Hillary Clinton, and of course Giuliani is openly contemptuous of pro-lifers and family values. If Giuliani is nominated, then approximately half of Americans will have no party head to voice their deeply-held belief that all human beings possess the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. And of course, a third party candidate would only guarantee the election of Hillary Clinton.

How can we do this? I hate to admit it, but blog discussions won't get us very far because very few undecided people read them. We need to get out there and talk with these very Christian conservative leaders who are waiting until the end of October and tell them why we think they need to get behind Huckabee. Moreover, we need to talk with and convert their employees and members, who the leaders will listen to more than some faceless person sending an email.

The place to do this is the FRC Action Washington Briefing on Friday, October 19! This is worth the financial sacrifice. (And conference registration is very reasonably priced, at $95/$50 for students.) People on the ground are worth far more than money when it comes to grassroots action. If there is any way you can come to DC and "work the rooms" for Huckabee, and you're weighing the cost of taking a day off of work and/or coming to DC versus donating the same amount to the campaign, come here! You can leverage your money and efforts for so much more by showing up, wearing a Huckabee pin, and telling numerous GOP activists (who will never read a Huckabee blog otherwise) why our nation needs them to give Mike their support.

Important Note: The Presidential straw poll voting concludes on Saturday at 1 pm, according to the latest schedule posted online. Gov. Huckabee's scheduled speaking time has also been moved to the Saturday morning session. This means that conference-goers will not hear Huckabee speak on Friday, making it all the more important to prime them to wait to hear him speak and not cast an ill-informed vote on Friday.

Moreover, after Q3's disappointing fundraising numbers, we need to demonstrate the power of Huckabee's grassroots network. It's one thing to vote online in the straw poll (which you definitely should do if you absolutely can't come to DC, by joining FRC Action and then casting your vote), but it's entirely another to demonstrate that Huckabee's grassroots are committed to trecking long distances for him, and not just in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Please see my post from yesterday if you would like tips on where to stay if you're coming in from out of town. Regardless of whether you're local or coming in from out of town, if you do plan to attend please email me to let me know, so we have a sense of how many Huckabee supporters are coming and have an opportunity to meet up.

Please register for the conference ASAP, because the original print form had a deadline of September 15, and who knows when they will close the online registration.

Between now and October 19, I plan to provide more coordination information as the situation develops. Moreover, I plan to post my best "lobbying" tips -- expert advice on how to persuade political types. I do this for a living, and am happy to share the tricks of the trade to help you be more effective in persuading other conference-goers to put their votes, money, and efforts behind Mike Huckabee.

Let's win this one for the Gipper!!

Money, Money, Money

Thanks to the 5 Huckabee supporters who emailed me to let me know they completed the Top-Tier Huckabee Challenge in September! I donated $250 more to the Huckabee campaign last night on your behalf.

Fantastic news up on the Huckabee website this morning: 3,525 donations in just 2 weeks, far surpassing their goal of 2,500!! Congratulations to Mike Huckabee and all of his supporters who chipped in. I'm looking forward to finding out how much money he raised soon, and hope and pray the Q3 fundraising will finally prove he is "top-tier" to the money-obsessed pundits.

And now look who is trying to raise money to "Stop Hillary": National Review Online, that same website that poses as a conservative news source but dismisses Huckabee most of the time and when they do cover him, it is usually sarcastic or distorted.

I encourage anyone who reads NRO to write to Kathryn Jean Lopez and let her know that your money is backing the person who can really stop Hillary--Mike Huckabee--and that NRO does not deserve any financial support so long as they undermine him with unfair coverage.

I'm Walkin' on Sunshine

Woo hoo, K Street Mole is in a very good mood because it's Friday, Huckabee is within spitting distance of his goal of 2,500 contributions by Sept. 30 (but keep 'em coming, and don't forget to email me if you've completed the challenge), and best of all...
I just met my man Mike Huckabee in person for the first time. :-)

It was a great event, and Mike was every bit a personable talking to me as he seems on TV. He told us all a great story about being between flights in the Dallas airport, and he sat down at an information booth that was closed for the evening so he could get a little work done between flights with a comfy chair, tabletop, and place to plug in his laptop. He said about a dozen people asked him where the bathroom or restaurants were. Instead of saying "I don't work here, I'm running for President" he just gladly pointed the way.

That's what a President should be: a man of the people, not "above" the people, who points the way to a better America.

Top-Tier Huckabee Challenge

[Updated 9/19 with simplified rules to qualify - see "fine print" below.]

I firmly believe that if voters merely get to know Huckabee as a "top-tier" candidate, he can win. He is the most dynamic and appealing of the Republican candidates, and the most in touch with the values of the "Republican base." At the same time, he has the most appealing message for middle class independents, who will determine who sits in the White House. Every conservative friend or family member I talk to says "I like Huckabee the best, but can he win?" My answer is this: he just needs to be seen by the American public (or at least likely Republican primary voters for now) as a top-tier candidate and yes, he can win.

How do we Huckabee supporters help him be seen as top-tier?

1. We announce our support publicly with bumper stickers and other signs that can be viewed by friends and strangers alike.
2. We influence the pundits who lead the opinions of Republican voters to start covering Huckabee as a serious candidate.
3. We help him raise more money so he can pay for ads and events that get him more exposure.

I realize that #3 is particularly hard because Huckabee does not appeal to the Republican moneybags so much as the middle class rank-and-file. He freely admits this on his Team Huckabee fundraising appeal video. So I'm proposing this challenge so together we can maximize our impact to help elect the best Presidential candidate in the field.

For each person who (1) joins Team Huckabee with a contribution of $20.08 or more, (2) prominently displays a Huckabee sign or sticker, and (3) writes letters urging well-known pundits or media sources to give Huckabee top-tier coverage, I will donate $50 to the Huckabee campaign, up to the legal couple limit of $4,600.

Let's leverage our support for all it's worth! Your letters to pundits and signs of support are worth far more than my $50 because they have the potential to draw in many, many more supporters who would each be willing to join Team Huckabee. But if you also report your donation to Kevin Tracy's blog, you can get another 50% match of your donation. Think about it: your $20 for Huckabee + my $50 match + "Semp's" $10 match = $80. You've just quadrupled your monetary gift to the Huckabee campaign, and the exposure you're giving him is priceless.

Power to the People, as Laura Ingraham says!

I'm a lawyer, so here's the fine print on how to take me up on this challenge:

1. Join Team Huckabee with a donation of $20.08 or more. Please note you must go through the Team Huckabee website, instead of the Mike Huckabee website, or your donation will not be treated as "joining." (Don't ask me why. Take it up with the Huckabee campaign staff.) You will get an ID card and bumper sticker in the mail. (It's okay if you did this already some time ago.)

2. Put that bumper sticker or other Huckabee paraphernalia some place a lot of people will see it, like your car bumper, on the bag you carry to work, a sign in your front yard if you live on a busy street, etc.

3. Write a letter to a well-known media source or pundit explaining why you think Huckabee can win and deserves "top-tier" coverage and either have it "published" in that source or get an individualized response back from the person you wrote to. Posting comments on other articles doesn't count, but if The Corner on NRO quotes something you wrote, for instance, that does count. Getting through on a talk radio show also counts. If you aren't successful in getting recognized by the "opinion gatekeepers" then you can show me 3 attempts instead. (By "well-known" I mean something that is read, heard or viewed by thousands or at least hundreds of people regularly, preferably targeted at key Republican primary voter groups such as political conservatives, conservative Catholics, Evangelicals, or homeschoolers.) One Mom's blog has great pointers on writing these letters and sending them to radio and "print" media.

Email me with forwarded copies of your letters to media, your Team Huckabee ID number (if you signed up recently and don't have an ID card yet, you can forward me the email showing you signed up instead), and a description of how you're publicizing Huckabee to: kstreetforhuck@hotmail.com. Please send it all in one email - I can't keep track of challenge-takers "in progress." In return, I will report publicly on this blog once a month how many Team Huckabee members qualify for the match (no names), and if you're one of that group, I will email you a redacted copy of the receipt for my donation for that amount.

I am not in any way associated with the Huckabee campaign. This challenge is in no way "coordinated" with Huckabee's campaign. This is pure and spontaneous grassroots activity - you be the seed and I'll be the fertilizer. (It's okay - lawyers are frequently called worse.)

What Have You Done to Promote the Huckabee Revolution Today?

I'm reading "From Hope to Higher Ground" on the subway during rush hour, perching my book high so plenty of people can see the dust jacket. How about you?

More K Street for Main Street Not Buying Fred

This just in on NRO's Campaign Spot: rumors that the Arlington Group is turning against Fred Thompson and toward Mike Huckabee.

The Arlington Group, for those outside the Beltway, is a one-stop-shop for mobilizing Christian/conservative grassroots organizations for action on Capitol Hill. I've worked with some of their lobbyists - truly the "good guys" of K Street.

Update: Another unnamed individual reinforcing the bad self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm sick of seeing good people led by the nose by conventional wisdom. The Mary Matalin machine has such great judgment that we lay people must all follow her lead? Uh, who is her husband again?

Self-fulfilling Mistake?

I had a very interesting exchange today with an old friend, who I thought might be persuadable to join the Huckabee team. (Big Buchanan fan in 2000 when he was director of a non-profit; now a mole on Wall Street so he can provide for his 9 children.) Here in slightly abbreviated form for your illumination:

Wall Street Mole (in response to K Street Mole's expression of skepticism about Fred Thompson's campaign):

I'm aware of his reputation [as a "junkyard dog"], and sure it is well-earned. Hard to tell how it will play with soccer moms and core Republican women voters, and there's a minefield of Gennifer Flowers's out there ready to blow up. The abortion lobbying business is troubling, I grant you, but his voting record otherwise is solid on the issue, and he's attracted the support of solid conservatives.

FT is far from perfect and no Reagan, but I think it's too far to go and too long odds for Huckabee or Brownback, this time at least. If I'm right, the next question becomes which candidate who espouses conservative views is most likely to gain momentum and stop Hillary next November?

K Street Mole:

Here's my question: why has FT attracted the support of so many conservatives? As far as I can tell, it is because:
1. His votes in the Senate were reliably conservative.
2. He does not espouse socially liberal views (Giuliani).
3. He is not anti-first-amendment, pro-illegal-immigration (McCain), or Mormon (Romney).
4. He has been on a TV show, so people recognize his face.

Numbers 1-3 explain why conservatives are willing to vote for him, despite the bimbo erruptions to come. Number 3 explains why he wouldn't completely bomb in a general election. But only #4 is a positive factor suggesting he could capture swing voters in the general election. I think that's a pretty weak positive, and could backfire because people might not take an actor seriously. I have strong doubts that face recognition will trump distaste over his personal life. Particularly because liberals willing to overlook his personal life will not be attracted by 1/2.

So what is there in FT to attract the type of people who voted for Bill Clinton despite his indiscretions? Nothing, I would say. Can you think of any reason he is likely to gain momentum among independents and beat Hillary? I'd be willing to get on board the train if someone could answer me that.

I think Huckabee has something positive to offer swing voters, which is fresh perspective on domestic issues people really care about. So what if those swing voters never saw him before he got the Republican nomination? Simply by virtue of being the candidate he would get tons of media exposure to overcome that issue. And he is already getting attention from the MSM because the interesting dark horse angle, and the attraction of the populist elements of his campaign rhetoric. Earned media is worth more than grainy attack ads that the big donors pay for.

Wall Street Mole was essentially rendered speechless by this. His response:

I would be thrilled to see Huckabee take off, btw. Just don't see it happening. I know that people like me saying that is self-fulfilling, but I'm out of the mix these days, watching from the electronic wings. If Thompson impresses from the hustings, he has a shot. Most people vote on image, and he's got a leg up.

Yes, my Wall Street friend, people like us saying that Huckabee has no chance and Thompson is the one with "image" IS self-fulfilling. The key word in the next sentence is IF. IF Thompson impresses swing voters he has a shot. But Wall Street Mole can't tell me - and no one can - what evidence there is that Thompson will impress swing voters. As far as I can tell, the only reason he has traction with conservatives is because he's getting attention from the likes of Sean Hannity and National Review. That won't sway the Reagan Democrat in Ohio whose employer went bankrupt last year. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised next week, but I am terribly afraid the conservative opinion leaders have hitched their wagon to the wrong horse.

The only way to turn around a bad self-fulfilling prophecy is to stop repeating it and start acting to reverse it.

Finally!

It's been a long political winter for me.

At a Christmas party I chatted with a gal joining Romney's campaign. I liked his integrity in family values, his experience, his willingness to tackle the healthcare mess. It didn't bother me that he is Mormon - here inside the Beltway anyone on the right side of the culture war is a close friend and ally, whether Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Mormon, what have you. But how would his faith play in Peoria? Thinking back to my childhood in the Land of Lincoln, I never imagined I would grow up to count Mormons among my closest friends. What about in Mississippi where my husband lived a couple years? They barely tolerate Catholics, much less Mormons, he tells me. Even worse, my formerly-Mormon, formerly-Southern friend tells me. I hold out, wondering if there is a better champion for the Republican party, though I rue the religious prejudice...

McCain - never an option. I will never forgive him for maiming the essential First Amendment freedom of political speech.

Giuliani - also not an option. A man who is unashamed of cheating on his wife will be unashamed of cheating on the people who elect him. You think this sexual libertine will keep his promise to appoint a "strict constructionist" Supreme Court justice who might overturn Roe v. Wade? Ask his children and you'll get a real answer.

Finally, this spring, the rumors of Fred Thompson began to spread. A number of my friends have drunk the Thompson Kool-Aid. But how can a man affectionately referred to by his friends as a "junkyard dog of Capitol Hill" (referring to his "robust dating life" until he married a tart half his age) be the savior of social conservatives? And why can't he be a man and debate with the others? What's this silly murmuring non-campaign-campaign? Just because he's a TV star doesn't make him the next Ronald Reagan.

Never really looked at the second tier...

Then Ames happened.

I remembered - who ever heard of Bill Clinton outside of Arkansas before 1991? Maybe prior name recognition isn't the be all and end all of a successful campaign. And then the chatter came on National Review, my most essential non-spiritual reading. What they praised about him I praised. What they panned about him, I cheered for his gutsy willingness to stand for what is good policy over party line. And this week, he's leading Thompson in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Huckabee's campaign is still a long shot, but now a real chance. A 3-pointer, but not a half-court toss.

In 1992, I was just barely too young to vote, and lost my political innocence as a "Reagan baby" as I watched this sleazy guy no one had heard of 18 months earlier win the Presidency of the United States. But it's a new day in America. This year my hope is the new man from Hope!