Self-fulfilling Mistake?

I had a very interesting exchange today with an old friend, who I thought might be persuadable to join the Huckabee team. (Big Buchanan fan in 2000 when he was director of a non-profit; now a mole on Wall Street so he can provide for his 9 children.) Here in slightly abbreviated form for your illumination:

Wall Street Mole (in response to K Street Mole's expression of skepticism about Fred Thompson's campaign):

I'm aware of his reputation [as a "junkyard dog"], and sure it is well-earned. Hard to tell how it will play with soccer moms and core Republican women voters, and there's a minefield of Gennifer Flowers's out there ready to blow up. The abortion lobbying business is troubling, I grant you, but his voting record otherwise is solid on the issue, and he's attracted the support of solid conservatives.

FT is far from perfect and no Reagan, but I think it's too far to go and too long odds for Huckabee or Brownback, this time at least. If I'm right, the next question becomes which candidate who espouses conservative views is most likely to gain momentum and stop Hillary next November?

K Street Mole:

Here's my question: why has FT attracted the support of so many conservatives? As far as I can tell, it is because:
1. His votes in the Senate were reliably conservative.
2. He does not espouse socially liberal views (Giuliani).
3. He is not anti-first-amendment, pro-illegal-immigration (McCain), or Mormon (Romney).
4. He has been on a TV show, so people recognize his face.

Numbers 1-3 explain why conservatives are willing to vote for him, despite the bimbo erruptions to come. Number 3 explains why he wouldn't completely bomb in a general election. But only #4 is a positive factor suggesting he could capture swing voters in the general election. I think that's a pretty weak positive, and could backfire because people might not take an actor seriously. I have strong doubts that face recognition will trump distaste over his personal life. Particularly because liberals willing to overlook his personal life will not be attracted by 1/2.

So what is there in FT to attract the type of people who voted for Bill Clinton despite his indiscretions? Nothing, I would say. Can you think of any reason he is likely to gain momentum among independents and beat Hillary? I'd be willing to get on board the train if someone could answer me that.

I think Huckabee has something positive to offer swing voters, which is fresh perspective on domestic issues people really care about. So what if those swing voters never saw him before he got the Republican nomination? Simply by virtue of being the candidate he would get tons of media exposure to overcome that issue. And he is already getting attention from the MSM because the interesting dark horse angle, and the attraction of the populist elements of his campaign rhetoric. Earned media is worth more than grainy attack ads that the big donors pay for.

Wall Street Mole was essentially rendered speechless by this. His response:

I would be thrilled to see Huckabee take off, btw. Just don't see it happening. I know that people like me saying that is self-fulfilling, but I'm out of the mix these days, watching from the electronic wings. If Thompson impresses from the hustings, he has a shot. Most people vote on image, and he's got a leg up.

Yes, my Wall Street friend, people like us saying that Huckabee has no chance and Thompson is the one with "image" IS self-fulfilling. The key word in the next sentence is IF. IF Thompson impresses swing voters he has a shot. But Wall Street Mole can't tell me - and no one can - what evidence there is that Thompson will impress swing voters. As far as I can tell, the only reason he has traction with conservatives is because he's getting attention from the likes of Sean Hannity and National Review. That won't sway the Reagan Democrat in Ohio whose employer went bankrupt last year. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised next week, but I am terribly afraid the conservative opinion leaders have hitched their wagon to the wrong horse.

The only way to turn around a bad self-fulfilling prophecy is to stop repeating it and start acting to reverse it.